The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) confirms that ‘human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.’
The Victorian Government acknowledges there is risk posed by climate change and a need to support national and global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Victorian Climate Change Act 2017 provides Victoria with a legislative foundation to manage climate change risks, maximise the opportunities that arise from decisive action, and drive a transition to a climate resilient community and economy with net zero emissions by 2050.
The North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, developed in 2015, remains a relevant guide for climate action in our region. Since 2015, climate change science has only become more definitive. The CSIRO now has finer-scale climate change data (5 km x 5 km resolution) and downscaled modelling which, when applied to the north central region, indicates a very high level of confidence around temperature increase. Rainfall projections are less certain, although trends are commonly downward, and accompanied by more frequent, high intensity events (increased potential for flooding and erosion) with less rain falling in the cooler months. There is also an elevated concern regarding the synergistic impacts of increasing landscape ‘dryness’ and extreme events, particularly wildfire.
Even if global temperature rise is contained to 1.50C by 2050 (which is appearing increasingly unlikely) the scale and impact of extreme events will pose significant risks to people, natural ecosystems, agricultural production systems and infrastructure. A key challenge for RCS partners is to bridge the gap between the scientific and technical information provided by government and research organisations, and regional communities, to support informed, locally relevant and practical mitigation and adaptation responses.
Climate – looking back
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Regional Weather and Climate Guide for the north central region, states that over the last 30 years:
Climate – looking forward
In 2019, using approved CSIRO data, DELWP produced a series of Climate Change Projection Reports. The boundaries in the reports are based on the Regional Partnership areas used by Regional Development Victoria and do not align with CMA regions. There are four reports relevant to the north central region:
- Loddon-Campaspe, which covers the central and eastern parts of the region and a majority of the total area, from Echuca to Boort, down to Maryborough and across to Woodend (Campaspe Shire, Loddon Shire, Central Goldfields Shire, City of Greater Bendigo, Mount Alexander Shire, Macedon Ranges Shire).
- Mallee, which is relevant to the northwest part of the region, from Donald across to Cohuna and including Swan Hill (Buloke Shire, Gannawarra Shire, Swan Hill Rural City).
- Wimmera Southern Mallee, which is relevant to the southwest of the region around St Arnaud (Northern Grampians Shire).
- Central Highlands, which is relevant to the southern part of the region between Kara Kara National Park and Trentham (Pyrenees Shire, City of Ballarat, Hepburn Shire).
The headlines of the Loddon-Campaspe report are listed below. Reports for the other areas contain similar headlines, with variances of just 0.10C in the expected increases in daily maximum temperature. However as rainfall and temperatures vary across the region, the predicted changes are expected to be more extreme in the north and west of the region that already experience higher temperatures and lower average / less reliable rainfall.
Extreme rainfall events i.e. heavy rainfall events that last a short time (less than one hour) are expected to increase in intensity; storms in summer are expected to become more intense while storms in autumn and winter are likely to remain unchanged. Rarer heavy rainfall events are projected to increase in frequency and be more intense.
Climate analogues describe two places/times that share similar climatic conditions. They are a useful way to predict future climate scenarios.
- By the 2050s, the climate of Bendigo could be more like the current climate of Shepparton (see also Agriculture Victoria’s Bendigo climate analogue poster).
- By the 2050s, the climate of Ballarat could be more like the current climate of Hamilton.
- By the 2050s, the climate of Swan Hill could be more like the current climate of Balranald, NSW (see also Agriculture Victoria’s Swan Hill climate analogue poster).
See also the Agriculture Victoria’s Echuca climate analogue poster which projects that by the 2050s the climate of Echuca could be more like Griffith, NSW.
Impacts and adaptation by RCS theme
The impacts of climate change are pervasive, exacerbating existing threats and vulnerabilities. NRM planning and management needs be considered through a climate change lens and consider multiple scenarios.
Climate change adaptation is a process of adjustment i.e. to prepare for, or respond to, the impacts of climate change. We need to adapt because climate change is already happening, and even if we reduce emissions significantly it will continue to happen albeit at a reduced rate. However, this doesn’t negate the importance of mitigation (reducing emissions, sequestering carbon) which is also discussed below.
This section outlines some of the predicted impacts of climate change on land, water, biodiversity and communities of the region, considering aspects that are particularly vulnerable and identifying some adaptation strategies. Developing and prioritising adaptation strategies will be an ongoing process that requires careful consideration of potential scenarios, the specific context, risks, vulnerabilities, costs and benefits of action. Approaches such as adaptation pathways planning that account for different scenarios may be helpful.
Community members engaged during the RCS renewal process told us that communities need to be involved in climate change planning and that creative solutions will be required. Dja Dja Wurrung suggested that traditional knowledge and management practices can inform climate change adaptation.
It will be useful to understand some of the common barriers to putting adaptation into practice:
- Informational barriers: associated with the development, usability of and access to information, data and knowledge.
- Governance and policy barriers: associated with policy, processes and their level of integration and collaboration on cross-cutting and multi-scaled adaptation planning.
- Organisational and institutional barriers: within the structures, processes and behaviours of society and organisations that limit the agility and viability of adaptation plans and implementation success.
- Resource barriers: that relate to implementing adaptation due to the development or deployment of financial, technological, human or informational resources.
- Psychological and social barriers: associated with cognitive ability, denial, cultural and behaviour norms of individuals and collective organisations that limit awareness or willingness to act on adaptation measures.
Community
Climate adaptation is already happening on many levels – land managers and communities have been responding to the increased frequency of drought, flood and fire through a range of actions that minimise future risk. The work of many Landcare and community groups to buffer remnant vegetation and improve landscape connectivity, for example, is improving the adaptive capacity (ability to adapt) of natural assets. Some climate change challenges specific to the community are:
- Rural landholders and community volunteers will be affected by extreme weather more often and will need support to adapt their management practices.
- With increasing temperatures, drought tolerant green spaces and trees in urban areas will be important as they lower surface and air temperatures by providing shade and evaporative cooling.
- With reduced water availability overall, managing trade-offs between potable/irrigation/recreation demands and environmental needs will be challenging.
- Managing growth in a changing climate while protecting and enhancing natural resources will be a challenge, particularly in those areas in the south east of the region where there is growing demand for rural residential properties.
Rural landholder beliefs
In 2019 a large survey of rural landholders (with properties > 10 ha) was undertaken in the north central region . The survey included a range of questions including beliefs about climate change. Consistent with the original survey (2014), the 2019 survey found significant differences in the responses between full-time farmers, part-time farmers, hobby farmers and non-farmers. The graph below shows the differences in beliefs around climate change for each landholder cohort. While full- time farmers were least likely to believe that climate change is caused by human activity, they were the most confident that the region’s landholders can adapt to expected changes in rainfall.
Land
With more extreme weather events (droughts, floods) and less rain falling over autumn, winter and spring, farmers will need to continue to adapt. Land capability under climate change and the development of place-based climate change resources to inform land use and adaptation, have been identified as priority directions.
More frequent droughts/floods will increase the risk of erosion and loss of topsoil generally. Lighter textured soils in areas of higher relief that are susceptible to wind and water erosion, will be particularly vulnerable. Preventing overgrazing and maintaining groundcover will continue to be important to protect soils. Increasing soil carbon is important; as it not only captures carbon (mitigation), but also improves the overall health, productivity and resilience of soils.
Water
Reduced streamflows
Most rainfall and runoff in Victoria occur during the cooler half of the year. Reductions in rainfall during this part of the year are predicted to continue with climate change. This has a disproportionate impact, because more rainfall becomes runoff at this time, as the ground is already wet. Predicted increases in rainfall during the warmer months and increasing intensity of short-duration (hour-long) rainfall events in some places, are not expected to offset this.
Water resource planners have generally assumed rainfall-run-off relationships to be stable. However, the Victoria’s water in a changing climate, Insights from the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative study found that the rainfall-run-off relationship shifted significantly for many catchments during the Millennium Drought and eight years later, more than one-third of the catchments studied, including those in the north central region, show no signs of recovery.
A tributary of the upper Loddon River at Yandoit was monitored as part of this study and demonstrates this finding for our region. Comparing Wonnangatta River (East Gippsland) with this tributary of the Loddon River, the study showed how the rainfall-run-off relationship in the Loddon changed over the Millennium Drought and has not yet recovered. With both systems experiencing similar percentage reductions in average rainfall (10%, 11%) over time, the Wonnangatta showed a 25% reduction whilst the Loddon showed a 55% reduction in run-off. Changes in the internal functioning of the catchment system, more so than weather patterns, are thought to be the cause of this. Characteristics including catchment storage, relief and pre-drought climate were found to be contributing factors. In summary, drier, flatter catchments are more vulnerable. Disconnection from groundwater systems, could also account for some of the changes in rainfall-run-off relationships, with data suggesting that aquifers have not yet recharged to pre-Millennium Drought levels.
This clearly demonstrates the current and future vulnerability of water resources in our region in response to dry conditions and droughts, and this must be accounted for in water resource and climate change adaptation planning for our waterways and wetlands. The report also notes that given the large range of plausible climate futures, water resource planning should consider a wide range of possible futures and references the Guidelines for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in Victoria (DELWP 2020) and the Pilot Water Sector Climate, Change Adaptation Action Plan (AAP) as important references.
Impacts
As well as reduced run-off and stream flow, existing threats to waterways including erosion and sedimentation are likely to be exacerbated by increased frequency of intense rainfall events, so erosion control will be important. Water quality will also be affected by increased temperatures and low flow conditions, particularly in summer and autumn, increasing the risk of blue-green algal blooms.
Waterways that are predicted to be more vulnerable to climate change, are the unregulated waterways including the upper reaches of the Loddon and Campaspe Rivers and the Avoca and Avon-Richardson catchments.
For wetlands, the timing of wetting and drying cycles is likely to change significantly and combined with increased temperatures and evapotranspiration this may lead to permanent and irreversible changes in wetland structure and function. Some wetlands are more vulnerable than others because they are sensitive to the key climate stressors. The source of water is an important factor, with floodplain wetlands that have tenuous connections to major rivers (e.g. Kamarooka wetlands complex), or wetlands that fill solely from surface run-off such as the (e.g. Moolort Plains wetlands) being particularly vulnerable to dry conditions. Refer mapping in the North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015 for other vulnerable wetland systems
Adaptation
It is important to continue our efforts to protect and improve riparian zones and wetlands, to exclude stock and revegetate. This has many benefits including to improve climate resilience. Revegetation helps prevent erosion and filter contaminants, while shading helps lower the water temperature and reduce evaporation. Prioritising the protection of drought refuges, such as shading of deep pools where water persists in dry periods, will be important.
Delivery of water for the environment in systems where this is possible, and when the water is available, can offset the impacts of climate variability to a degree. By understanding what patterns are likely to be in the future, some resilience can be built into the systems. Then over time, the system can be manipulated to adjust to longer term changes to flows.
For some waterways and wetlands, adaptation options may be limited, and in the long term a transition to a more terrestrial system is likely.
With reduced water availability we must also continue our efforts to:
Biodiversity
Climate change poses a serious threat to biodiversity, exacerbating existing threats. Native vegetation is likely to be directly impacted through changes to annual and seasonal rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, with flow-on effects including increased fire frequency and severity, and more favourable conditions for some weeds. Any change to the local ecological niche of species can place them near the limits of their physiological tolerance. There is already evidence of climate change causing large shifts in the composition of communities and changes in the centres of species distribution. Overall, changes in species composition are expected to occur more quickly in ecosystems already under stress, and more gradually elsewhere.
However, it is inherently difficult to predict specific impacts of climate change on our region’s biodiversity, given the complexity of interactions within and between ecosystems against background variability. Long-term monitoring is required to detect changes, particularly gradual changes like the observed decline in our region’s woodland birds. However, we cannot wait to act. Interventions required to halt and reverse declines such as this, require long lead times and increased effort, over and above what we’re doing now. Even then, it may be too late to prevent local extinctions.
The North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015 considers the vulnerability of native vegetation in the region under climate change and highlight a number of priority areas (e.g. Wedderburn – Wychitella) that are especially vulnerable to climate change. However vulnerabilities also exist where remnants are fragmented. Low-cost and low-regrets adaptation strategies that minimise current risks to biodiversity and improve climate resilience should be prioritised including;
- Maintaining, enhancing, buffering good quality remnant native vegetation and habitat including; in areas more resistant to climate change (mostly in the southern parts of the region), riparian corridors and high-quality drought refuges.
- Continuing to improve the resilience of native vegetation and habitat generally, through management of current/emerging threats.
- Using species of different provenances (future climate analogs) for revegetation, such as in the Bush Heritage Climate-Ready Revegetation Research Project at Nardoo Hills.
Specific adaptation actions to protect biodiversity, warrant consideration of climate scenarios, risks, vulnerabilities, costs, benefits etc. to inform decision making. A priority direction has been developed to identify regional priorities for biodiversity adaptation to climate change, including refuges to protect, areas to build climate resilience and a strategic approach to climate-wise connectivity.
Mitigation
Climate change mitigation involves reducing the amount of greenhouse gases produced and/or increasing the sequestration of carbon. There are a range of activities, such as investment in renewable energy sources or transition away from high emission farming systems, which will decrease regional carbon emissions. There are several large-scale solar farms being developed or proposed within the region, particularly in the northern dryland areas across the Gannawarra and Campaspe shires. In 2020 the Federal and State governments announced funding for the Kerang Link transmission upgrade project, which will further support the development of renewable energy projects in the region.
The North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015 identifies options to potentially increase carbon storage in plants and soils, while also protecting RCS priority assets including waterways, wetlands, terrestrial habitat and agricultural land, including:
- Agricultural system changes – to increase soil carbon.
- Environmental plantings, (intentional) natural regeneration and farm forestry – to increase terrestrial carbon stocks.
The carbon market has the potential to support several directions/outcomes of this RCS including, retention and protection of on farm biodiversity, biodiversity links, stewardship and improving soil health. The North Central CMA is currently exploring options to facilitate and enable natural resource management (NRM) investment across the region, including efforts to connect landholders, RCS partners, and the private sector with the carbon market. These projects could lead to extensive co-benefits being realised in our region such as supporting local revegetation projects, improving water quality and biodiversity outcomes and providing local employment opportunities, including Traditional Owner NRM enterprises.
Priority directions
While it will be important to consider climate change in NRM planning generally, RCS priority directions that speak directly to climate change have been identified, as listed below.
Consider current information and prioritise action to inform renewal of the North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015 by 2023.
Land theme:
- Work together to develop place-based climate change resources for landholders and managers, to inform adaptation.
- Undertake a land capability assessment of the region, considering values, constraints, and land use under multiple climate change scenarios, to inform land use planning and management.
Water theme:
- Collaborate to improve our understanding of the predicted impacts of climate change on water resources and aquatic ecosystems in the region, consider related impacts and scenarios in strategic and operational planning, and prioritise and implement urgent climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.
- Improve current monitoring and analysis of water resources and waterways to detect long-term changes and trends due to climate change and enable timely adaptation.
- Build community awareness and capacity around the management of water resources and waterways, in the context of climate change.
Community theme:
- Build capacity, networks and leadership to enable community-led climate solutions for land, water and biodiversity management.
Biodiversity theme:
- Identify regional priorities for biodiversity adaptation to climate change, including refuges to protect, areas to build climate resilience and a strategic approach to climate-wise connectivity.
- Maintain and improve the quality of our remnant native vegetation and habitats, considering climate resilience, with a focus on RCS priority biodiversity assets.
- Build climate-wise connectivity by promoting a broad strategic approach, enabling and encouraging local investment and action, leveraging incentives and market opportunities.
- Support strategic, long-term programs to monitor the effects of climate change on the regions biodiversity.
Links to useful resources
This list includes those references linked in the discussion above, and others that may be useful. It will be updated as needed.
Regional Resources
Under the Victorian Climate Change Act 2017, regional adaptation action plans will be developed every five years, including:
- ADAPT Grampians (Northern Grampians, Pyrenees, City of Ballarat and Hepburn Shires) is a regional hub for information sharing, learning and inspiration to ensure we adjust and thrive in our changing climate. At the time of writing the Grampians Region Climate Adaptation Strategy was being finalised.
- ADAPT Loddon Mallee (rest of the region) aims to increase community resilience by building climate knowledge, grassroots leadership skills and supporting place-based adaption action. At the time of writing the Loddon Mallee Climate Ready Plan was being finalised.
The North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015 remains a relevant guide for climate action with regards NRM in our region. A priority direction has been developed to renew this plan by 2023.
The Victorian Greenhouse Alliances are a partnership of local governments and other organisations taking regional climate change action. The Central Victorian Greenhouse Alliance covers most of our region, with the Wimmera Mallee Sustainability Alliance making up the rest.
Refer Local Government Resources on DELWPs Climate Change Adaptation Resources webpage.
Some Local Governments in the region, have dedicated climate change strategies and plans, and some are facilitating local climate planning and action with their communities.
Victorian Government Resources
Sector-based Adaptation Plans
Under the Victorian Climate Change Act 2017, sector-based adaptation action plans will be developed every five years including the following of relevance to the RCS:
- The Pilot Water Sector Climate, Change Adaptation Action Plan (due out in 2021) and the Water Sector Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan.
- Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan for Primary Production (due out in 2021).
- Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan for the Natural Environment System (due out in 2021).
The Climate Change Act sits alongside other key Victorian Government energy and climate change initiatives including Victoria’s Climate Change Framework, Victoria’s Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2017-2020 and Victoria’s Renewable Energy Action Plan.
DELWP’s Climate Change Adaptation Resources
DELWP’s Climate Change Adaptation Resources webpage includes a range of useful information, including:
- Guidance materials for place-based adaptation, to support government, business and community in planning and delivering effective place-based adaptation to address the impacts of climate change.
- Climate Change Projection Reports, as referenced on this webpage (refer Loddon Campaspe, Mallee, Wimmera Southern Mallee and Central Highlands for our region).
- Regional climate change adaptation snapshot reports (refer Loddon, Campaspe and Grampians for our region).
- Resources for Local Government, including guidance regarding roles and responsibilities for adaptation under Victorian legislation.
- Communicating climate change, a review of best practice.
- Climate impacts research, regarding the impact of heatwaves.
Agriculture Victoria’s Climate and Weather Resources
Agriculture Victoria’s Climate updates, newsletters and webinars webpage includes:
- Webinars regarding climate and emissions in agriculture.
- The ‘Milking the Weather newsletter‘ provides seasonal and climate risk information for the dairy industry four times per year — summer, autumn, winter and spring. The webpage also includes case studies of dairy farmers who are successfully managing climate risk.
- The Fast Break newsletter details oceanic and atmospheric climate driver activity over the last month and summarises three month model predictions for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, rainfall and temperature for Victoria.
- Soil moisture monitoring data of pastures and in cropping regions.
Agriculture Victoria’s Understanding weather, climate and forecasting webpage includes:
- The Climatedog animations, that explain the six drivers influencing Victoria’s climate.
- The latest science on our changing weather patterns.
- Short and long-term forecasts, interpreting seasonal forecasts.
- Climate analogue posters (including for Bendigo, Echuca and Swan Hill).
- Climate posters including: Annual rainfall decile maps 1910–2019 and Maximum temperature decile maps 1910–2019.
Agriculture and Climate Change – a summary of what the agriculture sector pledge in the Victorian Climate Change Strategy means for agriculture, and details of related programs.
Australian Government Resources
Climate change in Australia
The Climate Change in Australia website, has a range of resources, including a regional climate change explorer, based on the 2015 Murray Basin cluster report (includes north central region). This report informed the North Central Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan 2015.
ADAPT NRM
ADAPTNRM is an Australian government initiative that aims to support NRM groups in updating their NRM plans to include climate adaptation planning. The ADAPTNRM team consists of bio-physical and social scientists who work with NRM professionals to deliver information packages that are useful for planners and their stakeholders. Projects featured on their website focus on biodiversity.
Research and Innovation
Virtual Centre for Climate Change Innovation (VCCCI)
VCCCI has been established to strengthen Victoria’s role as a climate change leader, to foster innovative approaches and collaboration between businesses, industry, researchers and government. One of their initiatives is the Virtual Hub for Climate Change Innovation (the Hub) an online networking platform and knowledge repository developed to give our communities, businesses, researchers and other people working on climate change the opportunity to connect with knowledge and each other to share ideas, collaborate on projects and find innovative solutions to Victoria’s climate change challenges.
Victorian Water and Climate Initiative (VicWaCI)
VicWaCI is a partnership between the DELWP, the Bureau of Meteorology, the University of Melbourne, and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) managed by the Hydrology and Climate Science team of DELWP’s Water and Catchments Group. In December 2020 VicWaCI released Victoria’s Water in a Changing Climate, which informed the development of Guidelines for Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in Victoria and together they provide a foundation for regional sustainable water strategies, urban water strategies, and informing water resource planning decisions.
Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre (PICCC)
PICCC is based at the University of Melbourne. Their mission is to provide national leadership through research, development, education, partnerships and knowledge management and to build the capacity of primary industries to manage risks and opportunities from climate change.
